Precipitation chemistry and ozone and sulfate concentrations in the ocean atmosphere observed by multi-year cruising in East Asia and West Oceania (35°N–35°S, 100–135°E) in August and September

A comprehensive study on the chemistry of deposition and the concentration of tropospheric ozone and particulate sulfate in the ocean atmosphere was carried out for the data sets in 1990’s. It is important to study the atmospheric situation over the past years as well as the latest, especially in the East Asian region where emission amount of anthropogenic air pollutants have increased year by year due to rapid economic growth. The survey was conducted for 5 years in East Asia and West Oceania (35°N–35°S, 100–135°E) in August and September in 1990’s. The purpose of the survey was to study and understand the chemistry of deposition and the concentration of tropospheric ozone and particulate sulfate in the ocean atmosphere comprehensively in one project. Rainfall over the ocean was insufficiently neutralized. Gas and aerosol over the ocean were mature, i.e., well-mixed, during the period of the transportation. The characteristic latitudinal dependence was observed in the tropospheric ozone concentration, namely, higher in the southern hemisphere and lower in the northern hemisphere (approximately 25 ppb in the 10–40°S region and 5–15 ppb in the 20–40°N region). On the other hand, high concentrations of tropospheric ozone of over 30 ppb were observed in the northern hemisphere, which was attributable to the long-range transportation. The TSP concentration was approximately under the level of 40 μg m^?3 irrespectively of the latitude; in contrast, the nss-SO₄ ^2- concentration showed a clear latitudinal dependence, i.e., higher in the northern hemisphere and lower in the southern hemisphere. The background levels of the nss-SO₄ ^2- concentration were approximately 0.5 μg m^?3 in the 10–40°S region and 2–3 μg m^?3 and 4–5 μg m^?3 in the 0–20°N and 20–40°N regions, respectively.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Finite vertical oscillation of fluid parcel in a heterogeneous,incompressible sea water—Part II

Observations of temperature fluctuations and simultaneous observations of temperature and salinity fluctuations conducted in the sea are carefully analyzed on the theoretical basis developed in Part I. Observed remarkable fluctuations of about 10 minutes period are considered to agree with the unstable oscillations obtained from the theory. Actual oscillations observed in the sea are regarded to have small wave length such that they satisfy the condition (F) described in the Section 1 of Part I.     

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2?°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.     

赤道不稳定波对海气相互作用影响的数值模拟分析

赤道不稳定波 (tropical instability waves) 存在于热带东太平洋赤道附近, 通常于每年的春末夏初出现, 以约0.6 m/s速度向西传播, 波周期为20～40天左右, 波长约为1000～2000 km.本文利用一个全球高分辨率海气耦合模式对赤道不稳定波在赤道附近的热量输送进行分析, 表明赤道不稳定波产生指向赤道的热通量, 从而部分抵消了热带东太平洋地区由Ekman辐散和温度平流导致的强冷却效应, 维持热带地区的热量平衡.其对赤道冷舌区的增暖作用可以消除和减弱气候模式中热带东太平洋地区的系统性冷偏差, 能使冷舌的强度和分布得到合理的改善, 对气候模式的改进和发展具有潜在贡献.赤道不稳定波还可以改变赤道海洋上空低层大气层结稳定度, 导致近地层强的风场辐合辐散, 并进一步影响大气混合层的温度、 风场等气象要素.模拟分析结果还表明, 赤道不稳定波对大气强迫产生二次响应, 改变赤道上空逆温层的垂直位移和逆温强度.研究赤道不稳定波对热带海洋气候及其海气相互作用机理的理解具有重要意义.     

赤道不稳定波海气相互作用的数值模拟分析

赤道不稳定波(tropical instability waves)存在于热带东太平洋赤道附近, 通常于每年的春末夏初出现, 以约0.6 m/s速度向西传播, 波周期为20～40天左右, 波长约为1000～2000 km。本文利用一个全球高分辨率海气耦合模式对赤道不稳定波在赤道附近的热量输送进行分析, 表明赤道不稳定波产生指向赤道的热通量, 从而部分抵消了热带东太平洋地区由Ekman辐散和温度平流导致的强冷却效应, 维持热带地区的热量平衡。其对赤道冷舌区的增暖作用可以消除和减弱气候模式中热带东太平洋地区的系统性冷偏差, 能使冷舌的强度和分布得到合理的改善, 对气候模式的改进和发展具有潜在贡献。赤道不稳定波还可以改变赤道海洋上空低层大气层结稳定度, 导致近地层强的风场辐合辐散, 并进一步影响大气混合层的温度、 风场等气象要素。模拟分析结果还表明, 赤道不稳定波对大气强迫产生二次响应, 改变赤道上空逆温层的垂直位移和逆温强度。研究赤道不稳定波对热带海洋气候及其海气相互作用机理的理解具有重要意义。     

Decadal Changes in Climatological Intraseasonal Fluctuation of Subseasonal Evolution of Summer Precipitation over the Korean Peninsula in the mid-1990s

Decadal changes in the subseasonal evolution and the phase-locked climatological intraseasonal fluctuation of summertime rainfall over the Korean Peninsula before and after the mid-1990s are investigated.The activity and the migration speed of the monsoon rain band over the East Asian region are altered in the recent decade,resulting in the drier conditions in late spring and the earlier onset of Changma.In early August when a climatological monsoon break was clear in the earlier decade,the precipitation has increased dramatically with a meridional coherency.The response to the enhanced convection over the South China Sea and southeastern China provides a favorable condition for more precipitation in early August through the changes in moisture transport and tropical cyclone passage.     

Analyses Of Jovian Decametric Radiation -Bursts Interacting With N-Bursts

Dynamic spectra of S-bursts of Jovian decametric radiations are obtained by using a high time resolution radio spectrograph which has a time resolutionof 2 msec and the bandwidth of 2 MHz.Within occurrence of 65 S-burst events observed in the period from 1983 to 1999, 26 events have been identified as the S-N burst events, which are characterized by the interaction between the S-burst emissions and the Narrow band emissions. In the dynamic spectra of the S-N burst, the trend of emissions with negative and slower frequency drift named as “Trailing Edge Emission” are often observed shortly after the appearance of the S-burst.Detailed analyses of these phenomena revealed that the Trailing Edge Emission is not a manifestation of S-burst with slower drift rate but a variation ofN-burst. The results suggested that S-burst and the associated Trailing Edge Emission are formed simultaneously started from a common region with different drift rates. It has been further suggested that the appearance of the S-burstsis not controlled by the geometrical effect between the source region and theobserver, but directly reflects the generation of the source region widelydistributed in an altitude range from a few thousands km to 30,000 km, alongthe Io flux tube. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Trans-boundary and in-country transport of air pollutants observed in Kobe,Japan by high frequent filter pack sampling method

The seasonal intensive sampling of gases and particulate matter in ambient air was conducted at the site established in urban area of Japan to study the seasonal difference of the temporal variation of gases and particulate matter concentrations in urban atmosphere as well as to illustrate the different transport regimes that impacts air pollutants. The sample was collected by the four-stage filter-pack method with 6-h interval for one week in four seasons (spring, summer, autumn and winter). The trans-boundary transport of air pollutants with high concentration was characteristically observed in the spring sampling. On the other hand, we could successfully detect the in-country transports of air pollutants in the summer sampling. Four-season’s intensive survey considered, we could show the characteristic transport of air pollutants to provide the episodic high concentration for ambient air in the urban area of Japan, and successfully illustrate the seasonal-dependent transport regimes to impact on air pollutants.     

Ventilation revealed by the observation of dissolved oxygen concentration south of the Kuroshio Extension during 2012–2013

From the moored buoy observation at \(33.9^{\circ }\)N, \(144.9^{\circ }\)E south of the Kuroshio Extension (KE), we obtained Eulerian time series of dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) at 200, 400, and 600 m depths from June 2012 to March 2013. We observed ventilation by meso- and submesoscale processes that transport water southward across the KE jet. First, the cyclonic mesoscale eddy in June 2012 substantially depressed DO at depths of 400 and 600 m but maintained DO at 200 m, suggesting near-surface lateral transport of high-DO water derived from the north of the KE. Second, subduction of high-DO (>230 \({\upmu }\)mol kg\(^{-1}\)) water to a depth of 600 m was observed from early February to March 2013, associated with a mesoscale/submesoscale meandering of the KE jet. In mid-March 2013, shipboard hydrographic data were collected where the water mass at the mooring site would be advected by the eastward current on the southern flank of the KE. Based on these data, the subduction event was identified as an intrusion of an anomalously thick water mass from approximately 400–900 dbar. Ventilation of the subtropical mode water at a depth of 200 m around a subsurface DO maximum layer was detected as a rapid rise in DO in January 2013. This occurred after a significant seasonal decrease in DO at a rate of \(-0.130 \pm 0.007\) \({\upmu }\)mol kg\(^{-1}\) day\(^{-1}\) from July to December 2012.